Decoding the housing crisis

A public data project to track and analyze the rental housing shortage across the country, highlighting where additional units are needed most.

Shortage statistics for households earning less than 50% AMI

25

states with severe shortage
82%

of households rent-burdened
5.1 M

total shortage of affordable units
We have updated our numbers to reflect 2024 data, identifying 4 more states with severe shortage and a deterioration in the total shortage by 600,000 housing units since last year.

County-level shortage data by income group

Extremely low-income Very low-income Low-income Moderate, middle & upper-income

The lowest income households are feeling the most strain.

Different studies define the shortage differently with the total number ranging from 1.7 million to 7.3 million, depending on the type of housing and population group they are focusing on. We restricted our study to the rental market, and looked at the state of housing from the overall national level to individual county-level statistics.

Despite the nearly one million unit surplus nationally, the map clearly points out a pattern: most surplus units are in locations where jobs are scarce and depopulation is common, whereas the densely-populated coastal and metro areas are facing an extreme shortage.

Why 5.1 million units?

For the lowest-income groups (those earning under 50% AMI), the number of units missing to adequately house them is 5.1 million, nationally. These renter households feel the most acute socio-economic impacts of the shortage, and if left to market forces, they will be hard-pressed to find affordable housing units in the most economically viable areas.

With an uptick in new construction, ideally a trickle-down effect should ensure that when higher income households move into new housing, their vacated older units become available to lower-income households. However, this chain usually breaks before the lowest-income households benefit as these units are either rehabilitated into market-rate housing, are put to different use or simply abandoned.

Rental housing statistics by income group

Extremely low-income households (<30% AMI)

2023–2024 differences: shortage worsened by 0.5 million units
4.2 M
total shortage of units
48 states
facing a severe shortage
78%
of households rent-burdened

Very low-income households (31–50% AMI)

2023–2024 differences: both supply & demand dropped, but total shortage of units remained constant at 0.9 million units.
0.9 M
total shortage of units
12 states
facing a severe shortage
20 states
moderate shortage
72%
of households rent-burdened

Low-income households (51–80% AMI)

While on an aggregate national level there doesn’t seem to be any shortage, once we break it down to the county-level data, it becomes clear that the shortage is still severe in the metro areas and the more populous counties where there’s also added pressure from both the two lower income groups (ELI & VLI) that are facing hardships to find adequately priced rental units, as well from the middle- & upper-income groups to take up available units from the existing supply. Although the Census data shows us a whopping five million units of surplus nationally, the bulk of these surplus units are located in areas where population density is already low or where a population flight is happening.

2023–2024 differences: surplus remained but by 100,000 less units.
5.0 M
surplus of available units

Middle- & upper income households (>80% AMI)

The middle and upper income households are those that make between 81-120% and over 120% of the Area Median Income, respectively. We have combined these income groups in the map above. Although in reality there isn’t a shortage for these groups owing to their high purchasing power, our data shows that these households will struggle to find housing that is ‘affordable’ (where rent is less than 30% of their income) in the highly-dense metropolitan areas, where most of the economic opportunities are concentrated.

2023–2024 differences: still a surplus but by 300,000 less units.
0.1 M
surplus of available units

Rental housing statistics for ELI & VLI households

Rent-burdened population

ELI & VLI (<50% AMI) population

Terminology & calculations

SUPPLY: Total number of currently available renter households for a certain income group in a given area.

DEMAND: Total rental units needed to affordably house every household within a certain income group in a given area.

SUPPLY & DEMAND RATIO: Number of units available and affordable to each 100 households of a certain income group in a given area.

SHORTAGE: Supply minus demand. Total number of rental units missing to affordably house every household within a certain income group.

SHORTAGE Severity: Based on the supply & demand ratio, we have created a grading system to quickly identify where the shortage is most acute, defining them as severe, moderate, balanced, and in surplus.

Extremely low income (ELI): Households earning less than 30% AMI (area median income)

Very low income (VLI): Households earning between 30–50% AMI.

Low income (LI): Households earning between 51–80% AMI. Housing rent-capped or otherwise affordably priced with costs staying under 30% these groups' total household income is called 'affordable housing'.

Moderate Income (MI): Households earning between 81–120% AMI. Housing affordable for this group is called 'workforce housing'.

Middle & Upper Income (MUI): All income groups earning above 120% AMI. In our study, we have banded together the middle- and upper-income households.

We are on a mission to get housing affordability back on track!
At Builders Patch, we are committed to speeding up the creation of affordable housing through faster financing. Let’s join forces to build more affordable housing for our communities!